CORONAVIRUS: The true story behind it

by CliffHanger Academy

SARS-CoV-2 aka The CoronaVirus, causes the disease COVID-19.

What is it?

COVID-19 is the coronavirus disease from 2019 and comes from a virus in the Virus lineage called betacoronaviruses, which can make the jump to humans and nest in our respiratory tracts. The current coronavirus is specifically SARS-CoV-2, related to SARS-CoV which was identified in the 1st outbreak of SARS (Severe Upper Respiratory Syndrome) in 2002/2003 both originating in China.

The two viruses share 80% of their genetic codes. At that time SARS was highly virulent and moderately lethal (aprox 10%) and it spread to 26 countries. However, due to its lethal ability, quick incubation, lower affinity for human tissue, and its mutation rate into a less virulent form, SARS was contained and stopped.

SARS killed 774 people and infected 8,098 between November 2002 and July 2003.

The second outbreak

There was a 2nd outbreak of a severe coronavirus called MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome), which came out of the Middle East in 2012. Another highly dangerous coronavirus that thankfully had a very low contagious rate. It required very close contact in order to spread. Coupled with a short incubation and high severity, it was easily identified, making it easier to contain.

The COVID_19

The new 2019 Version 2 of SARS, also originated in China. It is the 3rd highly virulent form of a coronavirus. What we are all calling “Coronavirus” is surprisingly not as lethal in comparison to the 2003 version (estimated 1-3%). As of today, 6.30pm est, March 15th, 2020 there are 169,202 infected, 6492 deaths and 5913 in critical condition across 157 countries, this spread occurred in 2.5 months.

The new virus lays dormant and has asymptomatic carriers reporting long incubation periods over 14 days up to 27 days at the upper end. Also, it is very highly communicable, the 3D molecular structure of the spike-

shaped proteins found that the bonds between the new coronavirus' proteins and human receptors is 10 times higher than we saw with SARS.

A global pandemic has been declared due to the highly communicable nature of the new virus. In order to mitigate the spread, the vast majority of the world seems to be restricting social contact either voluntarily or mandatorily.

When people are saying “who cares” if it's like the flu, or “the flu is much worse” it’s not, countries and governments around the world would not sacrifice multi trillions of dollars to stop an innocuous cold.

There has been much disinformation about this virus vs the flu, many stating the statistical facts of the current flu. The flu has aprox .1% mortality, this is 10-20x lower then COVID-19. Flu has estimated 45million cases in the USA with 60,000 deaths. There is also a vaccine to help slow the spread.

Let’s compare what would happen if 45million were infected with covid-19 in the USA. At a 10x mortality over current flu that 600,000 deaths, at 20x that’s 1.2million. WHO states 3.4% mortality as of March 3rd. That’s 34x higher than the flu. So that’s over 2million. Since there is no vaccine and it’s highly communicable an uncontrolled spread would put millions more at risk. This is not counting the 10% critical condition people are left with which would be well over 4.5 million with permanent lung damage. There are also case reports of individuals clearing the virus and getting reinfected for a second round. We are unsure of how or if we develop an immunity or how long it lasts.

High risk individuals such as elderly and the medically compromised should be the most careful. They comprise the majority of the severe cases and most at risk for mortality. Age increases risk.

China CDC found, 2.3% of confirmed cases died. 14.8% in people 80 or older, 1.3% in 50-somethings, 0.4% in 40-somethings, and 0.2% in people 10 to 39.

Comorbidity increases risk. China CDC’s analysis of 44,672 patients with no other health conditions was 0.9% was 10.5% with cardiovascular disease, 7.3% with diabetes, 6.3% with chronic respiratory disease such as COPD, 6.0% for hypertension, and 5.6% for those with cancer.

Since this is a respiratory infection, there is obvious speculation that smokers, including vapers, are at higher risk for complications. Now is a great time to quit if you need some extra motivation.

Good news!

South Korea is the global superstar in quarantining and testing. As of Saturday March 14, South Korea had tested more than 248,000 people and identified 8,086 cases. So far, 72 have died, or 0.9% of those infected. Far lower numbers then what China is reporting and the global average. Children and young adults and healthy individuals are not showing severe symptoms and have much lower risk, as reviewed above. A possible vaccine is underway already and is in clinical trials, lead time will be 12 to 18 months. Let’s not forget about the possible mutation to a less virulent form like the 1st SARS. There is a possibility of herd immunity and also viruses don’t fare well with UV radiation, the summer may slow it down.

The steps the globe is taking seems like an overreaction since we have never experienced anything like this in our lifetime, but it is slowing the spread in order for the global scientists to come up with a plan and hopefully a vaccine. This also lessens the burden on the healthcare system that’s almost at max capacity before this virus emerged. This is how they “flatten the curve”. This is a great link to the explanation of how and why this works (https://www.washingtonpost.com/…/20…/world/corona-simulator/)

How this affects our community

Please remember the world is not ending, also toilet paper does not stop the spread of the virus, that’s why we are shutting down schools, businesses, and events.

The toilet paper won’t stop the spread but self quarantine and social distancing will. Also, if you are the only one with hand sanitizer then you are the one that will get sick since everyone else is spreading germs with their dirty hands. Save some for others please.

Despite being damaging to the economy and our social life being limited to distant interaction it is something we all are about to partake in, in order to curtail the rapid spread of this new disease.

If everything gets canceled and you stay home and nothing happens that was the point!

Remember we are a strong community and will overcome this.

Make sure to wash your hands frequently, use proper sneeze/cough techniques, don’t touch your face and try to keep space between individuals.

Above all please be sensible, be courteous, and be nice, we are all fighting this TOGETHER not fighting each other.

Sources: Certified doctors